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The year is half over but Summit County real estate sales aren’t

by The Mountain Living Team

Six months into 2018 and we have had 753 residential sales in Summit County.  That’s 8.1% below the first six months of last year when we had 819 residential sales.  The first six months of the year typically sees fewer real estate sales than the second half of the year so it’s possible we’ll make up that 8% deficit in the coming months.

In 2017, the first six months only made up 41% of the year’s sales.  The highest numbers of closings in any given year generally take place in September or October.  A typical sale takes about 45 days from going under contract to closing which means we are just beginning to get into our busy time for buyers.   

If you are considering selling your Summit County home, you should be putting it on the market soon.  The next two months are our most active of the selling season.  Get some tips on how to make your home show its best.

If you are considering buying in Summit County, you need to be ready to act quickly, 66% of homes are going under contract in the first 30 days they are on the market.  If you are one of the 74.5% of buyers getting a loan, make sure you have spoken to a good local lender and are pre-qualified.  When you are ready to submit an offer, we can have the lender write a pre-qualification letter to present with your offer.  That will reassure the seller that you are a quality buyer that is serious about buying.

What's on the horizon for 2018's real estate market?

by The Mountain Living Team

2017 was a good year for real estate.  Both prices and demand were up and inventory down from 2016.  2018 will continue to be more of the same. With the potential for higher interest rates that will put added strain on affordability, 2018 may see a slight slowing in demand and pricing.  However, the seller's market will continue.

Unexpected events may curtail the real estate market's trajectory but I think odds are low.  Even though prices are high now, by this time next year I expect them to be even higher.  I'm not sure how long we will sustain the uphill climb but I think we have at least one more year of it.

CNN sees the same things for the national real estate market.

 

Summit County 2017 - Year in Review

by The Mountain Living Team

Another year is behind us.  That means it's time to look back and reflect on the previous year and then think about what the next year will look like.  In the Summit County real estate market 2017 was an active year and my initial thoughts are 2018 will continue with more of the same.  Let's take a deeper look into the 2017 numbers and see how we came to those conclusions.

2017 residential sales were up 5.4% over 2016 with 1984 sales in Summit County.  Monthly sales fluctuated with some months better than 2016 and others falling short.  Overall the increases won out.

2017 had $1,385,947,000 in residential sales.  That's up 23% from 2016's sales volume of $1,124,067,000. Some of that increase came from a 46.6% bump in the number of sales over $1million.  In 2016, sales at $1million or more only made up 11.8% of the total sales.  In 2017 that number jumped to 16.5%.  In fact, the 70 sales at $2million or more nearly doubled the 38 sales in 2016.  

Average residential sales price in 2017 was $698,562 That is a 17% increase from $596,006 in 2016.  The increase in higher end sales certainly impacted the average sales price but values increased across the board.

The number of cash buyers in the market is about the same year over year at just under one third of all buyers.  The low interest rates continue to make borrowing more attractive, even to those that have the means to pay cash.

59.8% of homes sold in the first 30 days in 2017.  Homes were still selling quickly in 2016 with 54.8% under contract within 30 days.

Summit County has been suffering with low inventory for a couple of years now.  We currently have just 319 homes on the market in the entire county.  That's only a 2 month supply on average.  A balanced market would see about a six month supply.  We are definitely in a strong Seller's Market.

Condos and townhomes made up 63.8% of the residential sales in the county.  Currently, they only make up 41.3% of the inventory.

Low inventory is going to be the strongest force driving the 2018 market.  If inventory levels continue in similar fashion in 2018, we can expect prices to continue to increase.  There is still demand, even now during a typically slower time of year.  There is no indication that demand will slow into the coming year.

First Quarter Summit County Real Estate Statistics

by The Mountain Living Team

Despite low inventory levels, it’s been a great first quarter for residential real estate sales.  Sales are up over 2016 and the highest we’ve seen in a decade.  Inventory is starting to build so hopefully we can sustain an even better second quarter.

Residential sales in January were great; up 29.9% over 2016 and the most January sales since 2007.  February was not as good.  We actually lost a little ground with a decline of 20.7%.  March pulled the quarter back up with another double digit gain; up 38.5%.  That brought the total quarterly residential sales to 330, up 16.6% over 2016. 

Inventory has been on the rise since mid March.

Inventory has been on the rise since mid March.  It’s still low for this time of year, ideally I’d love to have double the listings we have now.  The increase is starting early this year.  Because there is so little competition right now, properties are coming on the market hoping to find a buyer that has been waiting and get a premium price on their property.   

At the start of April, the type of activity we are seeing in a given week is about 50 new properties on the market, 43 going under contract, 19 price decreases & 7 that were under contract but fell apart and are back on the market. 

The second quarter always has more sales than the first quarter.  The third quarter will have more sales than the second quarter.  Typically the third quarter has the most sales but we have been mixing it up recently with some really good fourth quarters too.  Last year there were nearly 60% more sales in Q2 than in Q1.  We will need, and should get, a lot more properties on the market to sustain that type of activity.  The only question is if there will be enough listings to build up the inventory.  Last year’s summertime high was under 700 properties for sale; about a 3 month supply. We will probably have fewer properties than that this year.

 

January gives a strong thumbs up to the state of the Summit County real estate market

by The Mountain Living Team

When 2016 ended the year with slightly fewer sales than 2015 it gave us some pause.  We began to wonder if this was an indicator.  Has the steady increase in our residential real estate market begun to stutter?  Unfortunately, there was no one to give us an answer.  All we could do was wait and see what would happen in the coming months and re-evaluate.  Well, just one month has gone by and so far, the market is still looking strong.  

January residential sales in Summit County posted strong sales, up 29.8% over January 2015 with 113 sales.  That beats January sales for the last 9 years and 14 of the last 17 Januarys!  The only years with stronger January sales this century were 2001, 2006 and 2007.   

As usual, Breckenridge had the bulk of the January sales with 42%.  Frisco contributed the least with just 8% of the sales.  That could be partially due to the very low inventory levels in Frisco.  Frisco has only 4% of the inventory in the county but managed 8% of the sales.  Dillon is in a similar situation with only 3% of the inventory but carrying 11.5% of the January sales. 

Both Land Sales and Partial Ownership Sales were strong in January.  January sales in those categories, however, barely make a dent in the annual sales numbers.

We will continue to watch the market as we push further into 2017.  January is giving us no indication that the market is stalling and it is actually looking very strong.  It's impossible to know the future all we can do is try and spot the subtle clues we see and hopefully interpret them correctly.  Let us know if you have questions about the Summit County real estate market.  We're here to help with any of your Summit County, Colorado needs.  

The Future of Real Estate

by The Mountain Living Team

2016 year end sales were down 4% from 2015 numbers.  That’s it.  We are done clawing our way out of the recession.  Our double digit annual rise from the ashes is over.  So what’s next?  Where does the market go from here?  Predicting the future would be so much easier if I had a crystal ball.  Instead, I am forced to look back, reflect and anticipate what may be.  Doing so, however, leaves me pondering the question, does it really even matter?

2006 saw Summit County’s strongest sales with nearly 2500 for the year.  2007 was still a strong year with a minimal 9.8% drop in sales from 2006. In 2008, our inventory levels were building and sales were lethargic.  By fall of 2008, the recession had hit Summit County.

Drawing parallels to the past, if 2015 was our peak sales year and 2016 was still a strong year with a minimal 4% drop in sales, what does that mean for 2017?  Perhaps it’s just a little down turn like that seen in 2001 and 2002.  Perhaps it’s not the sign of a down turn at all but just a hiccup brought on by the lack of properties for sale.  Unfortunately, I think it’s impossible to know for sure if our market will continue to be strong with rising prices or pull back in 2017.  We will have to let a few months pass in 2017 and take another look to see if any type of pattern has emerged.

Jump in the poolBuyers and sellers need to understand that the market will have its ups and downs, but overall, property values will continue to go up in the long term.  People that bought property during our peak years of 2006 & 2007 bought at the top.  The market came down after that, but now values have come back to or exceeded previous highs.  It’s a typical real estate cycle.  Timing the market is difficult at best and leaves you standing on the edge of the pool waiting for the right time to buy instead of jumping in and making the most of it.  If your goal is a long term investment, now is as good a time as any.  Come on in, the water is great!

 

2016: Year in Review

by The Mountain Living Team

2016 was very much a seller's market; very tight inventory and rising prices.  Buyers struggled to find properties, often compromising or waiting.  Indecisive or out of town buyers often missed properties as they were snatched up by ready buyers.  More properties than usual seemed to come back on the market because quick acting buyers, after doing further research, decided the property wasn't right for them.  Moves between properties in the county were more difficult because replacement properties were hard to come by.  That caused many sellers to hold off on selling.  

  • Residential inventory is down 24.7%

  • Residential sales were down 4% year over year.

  • Average sales price for residential properties in Summit County is up 5.8% to $595,390.

  • Average price per square foot for residential properties is up 6.9% to $376.45

  • The average days it takes for a residential property to sell is down 26.8% to 82 days, just under 3 months.

  • The list price to sales price ratio for residential properties in Summit County is 97.42%.  That's slightly better than 2015's 96.63%

  • The most expensive home to sell in 2016 sold for $6,400,000.

  • Breckenridge has the highest average sale price at $781,274.

  • Copper Mountain has the lowest average sale price at $381,719.

  • Land sales are improving but it is still a buyer's market in most areas.  

There are just over 300 residential properties for sale in all of Summit County.  Around 600 properties would be a more reasonable amount of properties for this time of year.  During our most recent downturn, Summit County had around 2000 residential properties available for sale.

No one can say for sure where the Summit County real estate market is headed.  I anticipate the first half of 2017 will be more of the same with tight inventory and rising prices.  The second half of the year is still too far away.

Market Comparison: Frisco vs The Highlands

by The Mountain Living Team

With the low inventory levels in the real estate market buyers are being forced to look outside their initial target area in order to have more to choose from.  That means the area that they have been following during their search may not be where they end up looking and/or buying.  As a result, they can be less informed about the area and what to expect in property values.  

Recently, buyers we have been working with expanded their search from Frisco to The Highlands in Breckenridge.  They were curious as to how The Highlands compares to single family homes in Frisco.  I did a little research and put together a few charts to help them determine if The Highlands was, financially, a place they wanted to be. 

Average Sale Price

The average sale price in the Highlands is much higher than it is in Frisco.  Because of the higher price point I think it makes the market more volatile; reacting more substantially to economic trends.  


Average Price Per Square FootThe  average price per square foot is surprisingly similar given the difference in sales prices.  Frisco is more inconsistent.  I believe that is because the single family homes in Frisco vary more in age and quality than we see in The Highlands.  An abundance of any type of home sales can swing the averages for that year. 

Average List to Sales PriceThe average list price to sales price ratio tells us how much sellers are coming off their list price.  This is based on the current list price at the time of the sale and doesn't include any price reductions made prior to an offer being accepted.  More properties on the market typically will push sellers into deeper discounts in order to secure a buyer.

Average Days on Market

This chart tells us that most of the time a Frisco home will sell quicker than a home in the Highlands.  It also shows us the average days on the market is a largely fluctuating number and that we are currently in a downward trend meaning homes are selling quicker than in the past.  

As with any averages, it must be understood that before making matter of fact claims the numbers must be dug deeper into.  A few sales can impact an average made from a limited section of data.  The Summit County market is a small market making it more susceptible to a few sales.  If you have questions about any of these statistics we are happy to dig deeper into them and provide you the information you need.  Just let us know via email or a comment on this post.

2016 - a year of scarcity in residential real estate

by The Mountain Living Team

Inventory levelsWe currently sit at 404 residential properties in the entire county for sale.  Of those 404, 213 are priced over one million dollars.  Of the 203 Summit County residential properties that sold in October only 25 were priced over one million dollars.  That means 178 people spending under one million dollars in just one month.  We only have 191 properties under one million dollars on the market right now.  That’s a severe shortage!  This isn’t the first time the market has looked like this during 2016.  It is the tightest market we have seen but every month this year has a very similar story.  Not many properties for sale. With monthly sales averaging approximately 150 homes per month we need closer to 900 properties on the market at all times.

Inventory levels do fluctuate seasonally every year.  Our highest inventory levels are generally seen in the summer and dip to its lowest point at the end of the year.   Our peak inventory level was just under 700 this year, hit in early August, and we haven’t hit our low yet.  As you can see from the chart, we have been seeing inventory falling steadily since 2009.

 

Properties are scarce in Frisco right now

by Meredith Adams

Are you looking for a home in Frisco?  It is slim pickin’s right now.  As I’m writing this there are only 21 residential properties for sale in Frisco.  The lowest priced is a 3 bedroom condo for $428,000.  Only 12 of the 21 properties are priced under a million dollars.  There are 12 additional properties under contract.  11 of those are priced below a million dollars.  Frisco had 223 sales in 2015, which works out to be about 18 sales per month.  The beginning of the year is typically a slower time of year for us.  January in 2015 only had 6 sales.  There have already been 9 sales this January.

Market conditions like these can result in multiple offers on properties.   The shortage of inventory makes the buyers stack up as they wait for something to come on the market and often leaves them competing for properties.   As we head into summer we see more and more properties come on the market.  That will help alleviate the property shortage and even out the buyer/seller mix.  Even at our peak inventory level in 2016, I don’t anticipate having an abundance of properties.  I expect the Frisco market to be a seller’s market all year long.

Multiple offer situations can complicate a property sale as the seller has to determine the best course of action for handling all the buyers.  We will be posting additional information about handing multiple offers soon.

Displaying blog entries 1-10 of 18

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Photo of Jason & Meredith Adams Real Estate
Jason & Meredith Adams
Mountain Living Real Estate
101 E. Main Street, #109 / PO Box 4115
Frisco CO 80443
888-666-0844