Real estate sales in Summit County Colorado are improving again, although slowly. After a disastrous July, August is looking like we will be up about 20%. September is more promising too. Last year, August had 85 residential sales and, while we have only closed 31 as of August 16th, there are still 75 pending sales that went under contract in July. It is possible that some of them will not close until September, but we should still have about 100 closings this month. That would mean an increase of 18-20%.

September sales last year were 116, and in the first half of August, 72 properties have gone pending. In order to have another 20% increase in September, we would need to have 139 sales, and I think that is unlikely at this point. But, we should be able to at least equal last year or have a small increase.

We are now in the third year of a very strong downturn in our market. We do have good Buyer activity, but they have no urgency to act, as Buyers know that the longer they wait, the lower the prices will be. The hope of bottoming out…..

In my last post, I knew that July was not going to be a good month, and estimated that perhaps we would have 60 sales of Summit County residential real estate. We were going against 79 sales in July 2009, which, compared to our “usual” months of between 100 and 200 units, was low anyway. This is, for sure, our new normal.

July 2010 the number of transactions was only 50! The only month with fewer sales this year was January, always a slow time, and before that, a year ago, in June 2009. The economic news was not good in May and June, with talk of a double dip, and it affected July closings. That seems to have eased off now, and the good news is that we already have had 100 properties go under contract since July 1, so sales for August should be much better. When I called to set up showings of six properties yesterday, I found that two of them had just gone under contract. That felt like the old days! To match last year, we need 85 sales, but in September and October we have 133 and 110 to do. We are seeing good activity, as Buyers realize that with prices down to 2006 levels in most areas, and interest rates at all time lows, now might be a good time to buy that second home they have always wanted. Sellers are much more cooperative…….

Sales for July so far this month are not good. Only 20 residential properties have closed in all of Summit County as of this morning, July 21st. An additional 40 are pending that went under contract in June, and 67 more went under contract in July so far. It is likely that most of the June pendings will close in July, while the majority of the July pendings will close in August. Some might close in September as lenders are taking about six weeks to process loans these days. That means that our sales in July might be around 60 units. Last year in July, we had 79 sales, so we could be off as much as 24%. So much for my prediction of a 30% increase this year! At this point, with the projection of 60 sales in July, our year to date increase would be 26%.

What does the future hold? August 2009 had 85 sales, and it is possible, with what is currently under contract, that we will match August. However, September through December last year had well over 100 sales every month, and unless our business picks up considerably

Buffalo Mountain Gallery in Frisco, and Hang Time gallery in Breckenridge, have the new 2010 Bach, Beethoven and Breckenridge poster. This is the 30th anniversary year of the Breckenridge Music Festival. For the last 24 of those years, the BMI has produced a poster using the artwork from a local artist. I am pleased that they chose my painting, Colorado Color, this year. It is an ……

June 2010 over June 2009 was up more than 79%, so it wouldn’t seem that we would have a poor summer selling season. Year to date we are up 38%. So how would we have a disappointing summer? My interpretation of the market is based on facts, but it also has a little intuition thrown into the mix. That feeling comes from talking to other agents, to clients and potential clients. My intuition and gut feelings for what is happening this summer so far, is what makes me think that we will not have the summer we hoped to have.

The numbers show us to be right on target so far, but my concern is not for the numbers, but for people with properties to sell.