Silverthorne real estate market update
Real estate in Silverthorne, Frisco, Breckenridge and the rest of Summit County is still pretty darn good.
It is not as strong as it was, but relative to other parts of the country, our market is very good! Vacation home Buyers who pay cash or have good credit scores still can buy. This spring and summer should be a good time to do so, as I think prices will plateau, given the current economic climate.
A Realtor friend of mine recently noted that she saw a “disconnect” between Buyers and Sellers, meaning that Sellers see their property in Silverthorne or elsewhere in Summit County as being worth more than it actually is. Buyers see it as worth less than it should sell for. I have noticed the same thing and I liked the way she put it. I think the disconnect is because we are coming off a couple of really good years where property values appreciated in leaps and bounds. People were able to price much higher than the last comparable sale and get it, as Buyers were ready, willing and able to buy. Today they are willing, but not so ready, and often, not able. In the past, Buyers thought it was okay to stretch to make the purchase, and lenders cooperated with interest only or stated income (no verification) loans. Those loans are now a thing of the past.
For the most part, Sellers have yet to realize what the market is like today, and sometimes it takes several months of being listed with no offers to understand the Buyer’s attitude of “let’s wait six months and buy after the price has been reduced”. Potential Buyers think that prices will surely come down, and if enough people think that way, they will.
To know how to price a property, besides looking at what has sold, one must look at the number of homes and condos on the market in each price range, and the number that have sold over the last year. If you know that an average of five properties a month in your price range sold last year, it is not hard to figure out that if 15 properties in that same price range are on the market, then it should take 3 months to sell them all. Looking at it that way assumes that no new listings will come on the market, all fifteen properties are in similar condition, and that the sales will continue at the same pace as last year. Of course, that is not ever the case, but it does give you a feel for the market.
Let’s look at properties in Silverthorne in particular.
As of this writing, on April 22, 2008. there are only 13 homes in Wildernest and Silverthorne for sale under $300,000, and they are mostly condos. In the last year, 102 have sold and 13 more are currently under contract with closings scheduled. At that same rate, these 13 listings should sell in about 5 weeks. If they look good, are in a good location, and priced properly compared to the other active listings and the sold listings, that should be the case. One of them is our listing and the photo of the living room is above. It has been on the market just a couple of weeks. We have a two or three people expressing some interest and it looks great inside, so I think it will easily go in that time frame. It is priced at $259,000. It will probably not sell to a second home owner, but rather, a local needing a full time residence.
As prices go up, the available Buyer pool goes down, and time on the market increases. In the $600,000 to $700,000 price range, 21 homes sold last year, one is under contract and there are 13 homes for sale, the same as in the lower price range. Now the possible time on the market stretches to seven months. In order to sell in less than seven months, the home needs to be priced very competitively, have a good location and be in great condition. Buyers do not want to have to remodel, especially a second home.
Between $1,200,000 and $1,500,000 we now have 21 Silverthorne homes for sale, (mostly in Eagles Nest), but there were only 13 sales in that price range last year. Assuming the same pace of sales, it could take 18 months to sell in these homes.
Below, I have a table with each price range and expected time frame for these Silverthorne or Wildernest condos and homes to sell.
If you would like more market updates, please subscribe to the blog. I write them periodically about real estate in Summit County. You might like to read some I have already written: a ten year history of sales of homes in Summit County, and another about real estate in Copper Mountain. Do you have questions about other parts of the county? Call or email me, please!
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:33 am
The term disconnect is very appropriate. I see that down here as well. The sellers that truly get that & get real are the ones that will sell their homes right now. Looking at the cold hard facts the way you have outlined it is the way to take the emotion out of it and make the first step to “getting real”.
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:29 am
HI Steve, I thought that with all the bad news about foreclosures in Denver that Sellers would get it down there, but maybe it is another case of “but it doesn’t affect me”. Statistics really do help to see the reality of the situation.