August 16th, 2010
Real estate sales in Summit County Colorado are improving again, although slowly. After a disastrous July, August is looking like we will be up about 20%. September is more promising too. Last year, August had 85 residential sales and, while we have only closed 31 as of August 16th, there are still 75 pending sales that went under contract in July. It is possible that some of them will not close until September, but we should still have about 100 closings this month. That would mean an increase of 18-20%.
September sales last year were 116, and in the first half of August, 72 properties have gone pending. In order to have another 20% increase in September, we would need to have 139 sales, and I think that is unlikely at this point. But, we should be able to at least equal last year or have a small increase.
We are now in the third year of a very strong downturn in our market. We do have good Buyer activity, but they have no urgency to act, as Buyers know that the longer they wait, the lower the prices will be. The hope of bottoming out…..
July 21st, 2010
Sales for July so far this month are not good. Only 20 residential properties have closed in all of Summit County as of this morning, July 21st. An additional 40 are pending that went under contract in June, and 67 more went under contract in July so far. It is likely that most of the June pendings will close in July, while the majority of the July pendings will close in August. Some might close in September as lenders are taking about six weeks to process loans these days. That means that our sales in July might be around 60 units. Last year in July, we had 79 sales, so we could be off as much as 24%. So much for my prediction of a 30% increase this year! At this point, with the projection of 60 sales in July, our year to date increase would be 26%.
What does the future hold? August 2009 had 85 sales, and it is possible, with what is currently under contract, that we will match August. However, September through December last year had well over 100 sales every month, and unless our business picks up considerably
July 2nd, 2010
June 2010 over June 2009 was up more than 79%, so it wouldn’t seem that we would have a poor summer selling season. Year to date we are up 38%. So how would we have a disappointing summer? My interpretation of the market is based on facts, but it also has a little intuition thrown into the mix. That feeling comes from talking to other agents, to clients and potential clients. My intuition and gut feelings for what is happening this summer so far, is what makes me think that we will not have the summer we hoped to have.
The numbers show us to be right on target so far, but my concern is not for the numbers, but for people with properties to sell.
June 14th, 2010
It would be nice if something was happening with real estate at Copper Mountain! There have been only eight sales so far in 2010, and five more properties are under contract. There are 126 Copper Mountain condos and homes for sale as of today, June 14. Assuming all five under contract close, there will have been 13 sales in 6 months. In Summit County, about 60% of our business is done in the last six months of the year, but let’s assume our sales to date would only be 30% as it is a ski area and the majority of closings occur right before ski season start. That means that we might expect to have 20 more sales at Copper this year for a total of 33. With 126 on the market, the odds don’t look good for getting the condos sold. If only 20 more might sell, or 16% of what is currently listed, (assuming no new listings come on the market) then it will be the best priced, the best looking, with the best location, that are the lucky ones. In other words, the cream of the crop.
Why don’t Copper Mountain Sellers just reduce the price and get the job done? Some do……
June 4th, 2010
Small, steady increases, seem to be our new normal. While a 31% increase for the month sounds like a lot, it was only 89 transactions versus 68 a year ago. As a comparison, in May 2006, we had 219 transactions. However, slow and steady, as long as it is going the right direction, is ok with me. We actually have less inventory this year, with only 1791 Summit County homes for sale versus 1830 at this time last year. Listing season is a little later though, as people waited to see what the market would do. In the last month we have had 198 new listings and they are continuing to come in. We will probably catch up to last year’s inventory number this month. As long as we have more Buyers than we did last year, we will be ok. A recent article in the Denver Post, in which I was quoted, said that the big chill in all resort real estate is slowly thawing. Here is what they said about Summit County homes:
