Much of the country has been a Buyer’s market for a couple of years.   Here in Summit County, real estate sales first declined in double digits a year ago, although they were softening for a few months before that.  Today, our inventory has almost doubled in the last six months and sales are down by 55% from a year ago.  Buyers are recognizing that there might be a few anxious Sellers (there are, but not all of them are desperate) and are taking advantage of the ability to get a good deal.  The last couple of weeks, I have seen some huge price reductions and new listings coming on the market well under the last sale.  This summer might be the best time to find a good deal.

It is difficult to know exactly when the bottom of the market is until it has started to go up again, but July, August and September of 2009 might be it.  One thing is for sure:  there are plenty of choices for Summit County vacation homes, and if your first choice doesn’t want to cooperate, your second choice might. One word of caution though….recognize that if a property is well priced, it might already be a good value.  Just because the Seller won’t come off the price another 10% doesn’t mean that you don’t have a steal.  Look at what has sold, what is listed, and how this property compares.  Don’t be a jerk just because you can.  Being nice to the Seller, understanding his or her motivations while still driving a hard bargain, can get you a great deal on your Summit County home. 

Buyers think it is time the shoe is on the other foot.  Sellers were in the driver’s seat for a long time, and many Buyers considered them overly greedy.  It might have been true, and now we see the same behaviour in real estate Buyers.  However, right now, we are just glad they are showing up and we are welcoming them with open arms, jerks or not! 

Why do we care?  Because with more properties on the market, the people that want to sell have more competition.  In order to be the next one sold the home will have to be the lowest priced and in the best condition in the price range.  In other words, the best value.  Prices will push down until inventory levels stabilize.  Only two things will help; less Sellers or more Buyers.  Ideally, a combination of both! 

With only 31 sales in the County month to date, June is looking pretty awful.  It looks like we will be down at least 50% this month, and June 2008 was below June 2007 by more than 50%!   May had been a hopeful month, but so far, the only signs of life for June are that we do seem to have a lot more people looking.  That will help July and August. 

 The lowest one currently is $174,900 for a 470 square foot studio.  The lowest priced one bedroom Keystone condo is at Wild Irishman  and it is currently priced at $209,900 after the original list price of $224,900 was reduced. 

Searching on the internet for Keystone real estate, you may find a Keystone cabin for only $149,900!  When that was listed recently I had to go and take a look at the photos.  It is actually a 5 acre mining claim in the backcountry behind the town of Montezuma, about seven or eight miles from the ski resort.  It has an old cabin on it that a strong wind might blow over one day.  It looks like it has been open to the elements for some time.  The zoning in that area is backcountry, which means that building a house on it will probably be pretty difficult.  But I bet it will attract a  lot of attention.  Twenty years ago when we first started looking for a place in or near Summit County, we  looked at many cabins.  We ended up buying a little condo because it was much easier than maintaining another home.  It was simple just to lock the door, go away for a week or two and not worry about pipes freezing.  But I digress; let’s get back to Keystone!

The price range with the highest number of condo sales in Keystone is $300-400,000. 

It is also the price range with the most selection, as 60 Keystone condos in that range are currently for sale.  There have been 12 sales so far this year as of June 15, and one is under contract.  For $300,000 you can get a nice, newer, one bedroom condo in River Run or nearby.  Or, you can find an older 2 bedroom condo just a little further away, but still on the shuttle route.  Between $350,000 and $400,000 there are plenty of choices of two bedroom condos with great locations, which is why it is such a popular price range. 

If you can find such nice condos under $400,000, who would want to spend more?  Someone who wants three or four bedrooms, more space, or who want a ski in, ski out location such as the one in The Timbers or Lone Eagle.  Instead of formica and white appliances, you get granite and stainless.  With more than 250 condos for sale in Keystone, there are plenty of choices.  Prices are coming down and, I predict, will come down some more before our market picks up again.  Interest rates are still good and there might never be a better time to buy.  For more info on Keystone condos in general, click the link.  Contact us for more information as I didn’t even address homes, townhomes and duplexes in Keystone.  Watch for a future post on that subject.  Subscribe! 

of all our listings in Summit County, and for the first five months of the year, 44% of all residential sales were in Breckenridge.  That tells us that  home sales in Breckenridge are a little slower than in Dillon, where we have only 8% of all listings but 10% of all sales.  That difference may lead one to believe that better buys are available in Breck than in Dillon, but  it may or may not be true.  Perhaps it is not a specific location in the county as much as it is motivated and realistic Sellers.  Inventory and sales numbers can help us try to figure out where the Sellers are that might be more motivated, but it all comes down to how badly a Seller wants to sell and how aware of market conditions they are.   Dillon is doing better than Breckenridge simply because the price range of most of the available properties are much lower in price than the homes and condos in Breckenridge.

An example of lack of motivation is Copper Mountain,

where only 5 sales have occurred the first 5 months of the year, but 84 properties are for sale.  If sales don’t pick up, that means we have an 84 month inventory….7 years!  However, prices have not yet dropped a lot.  Copper owners have been through this before, and most can wait it out.  Sellers who do want to sell are probably going to have to reduce prices more to get the job done.   Keystone is doing better with 35 sales, (16% of the sales this year), and only 14% of the inventory, or 251 homes and condos. 

Frisco is not doing so well

and I know there are some motivated Sellers there.  Frisco suffers from a similar problem to Breck with a larger percentage of higher priced property.   With 183 listings, only 16 have sold so far this year.  10% of all listings are in Frisco, but only 7% of sales.  Silverthorne and Wildernest fared better, with 20% of all sales  and only 17% of listings, coming in second to Dillon who has just under a three year inventory at current sales levels.  It wasn’t so long ago that we had 3 month supplies in some price ranges.  Oh well; so much for the good old days. 

The highest price property sold was listed at $399,999,999; about as close to $4 million as you can get without actually being there.  It sold for $3,300,000, a $700,000  discount, or 82.5% of the list price. A pretty hefty price reduction, even in today’s market.  The lowest sale was a condo listed at $134,000.  The average sale was $685,974 while the median was $515,000.  The high priced sale really brought the average up.  What was interesting was that when we look at the month of May only, both the median and the average sale price were higher than the first five months, and so was the price per square foot.  However, the average sale price was 92% in May versus 93% January through May.  What that tells me is that Buyers are more willing to spend more money than they were, but they are demanding lower prices and getting them.

The trend will probably continue as our inventory levels have increased considerably in the last two or three weeks.  For a long time we had 1700 to 1750 units on the market, but suddenly, people are listing again and we could very well be at 1950-2000 units by July 4th.  That trend will keep prices lower through the summer.   

Interest rates have climbed slightly, but are still around 5.5%.  We hope they will stay low through the summer.  If they do, it means that this summer will be a great time to buy your second home or vacation home at truly affordable levels.  More Sellers are truly motivated than they have ever been before. 

the first five months of the year.  Inventory levels are high, with 394 Breck condos for sale right now, but only 24 sales from 1/1/2009 to 5/28/2009. At that rate, it is going to take 6 1/2 years to sell them all!   Condos  make up about 45% of the total residential property for sale in Breckenridge, but so far this year, have only made up 26% of the total residential sales.   Looking at the mix of what has sold, I noticed that of the 394 condos, 88 were priced over $1M, but only one has sold in that price range.  However, of all 93 Breck residential sales for 2009 to date, 27 were listed at more than $1M.  Most of the higher priced properties were single family homes.

Other parts of Summit County have seen only lower priced properties selling, but it seems that Buyers are taking advantage of some very anxious Sellers of larger, high-end Breckenridge homes and are buying them for good prices.  Getting a loan for more than $729,000 can be difficult these days, so cash buyers are in a very good position and are able to negotiate lower prices.  As a result, condos are not selling as quickly.  Buyers are seeing better values in condos in Frisco, Silverthorne and Keystone and are buying there. 

That is not to say that you cannot sell a condo in Breckenridge today.  You can, but it has to be priced properly.  I know of one three bedroom condo with great ski run and Snowflake lift access, that has had some serious price reductions.  I showed it some some people who were very interested in it, but they moved too slowly and someone else bought it out from under them.  Even in this slow market, we can still get multiple offers as people recognize a good deal when they see it.  To get the rest of the condo inventory moving, we are going to have to see more screaming deals.  Sellers will eventually realize that they need to either take them off the market and wait for better times, or price aggressively and get it sold.   Many high end Sellers have already recognized what they must do; now the condo Sellers need to get the message too. 

You won’t be disappointed by this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath Summit County, Colorado home.  The entrance to the home is striking; a small patio perched half a flight up with stone walls and a gable roof.  The entry way is large with wide stairways taking you half a flight up to the main living area or half a flight down to the additional bedrooms and family room.  You instantly feel right at home in this living room.  Open and bright a wall of windows brings the spectacular mountain views right to you.  A beautiful stone fireplace on the adjacent wall makes you feel right at home.  A flip of a switch and a beautiful fire warms the room.  Picture your friends and family gathered in the living room, a warm fire burning, wine poured as great conversation and laughter fill the room.  What a relaxing way to cap a great day in the county.

The living area is nice and open.  The dining area and kitchen are separate but clearly included in the living space.  A long bar in additional to the dining table ensure there’s room for everyone to enjoy a meal.  The kitchen appliances are protected by a 14 month home warranty provided free to the buyer.  A sliding glass door takes your from the dining room onto a huge deck on the back of the house.  It’s nicely wooded behind the house with abundant natural landscaping and mountain views occasionally peaking from between the trees and rising high into the sky.  What a fabulous place to enjoy lunch on summer days or relax with a good book as the summer breeze cools you.  The deck is also a great spot for a hot tub.  The wiring is already there, you just need to supply the hot tub.

Off the living room is the master bedroom.  A large room with a gas fireplace and walk in closet.  The windows look out onto the wooded backyard and mountain tops, an amazing site to wake up to.  The 5 piece master bath is also spacious.  It doesn’t feel cramped even with a large jetted tub, separate shower and double sinks.  The commode is closed off from the rest of the bathroom in it’s own private room.

The lower level houses two more bedrooms, a full bathroom, garage access and a large family room.  The family room is only half below grade so an abundance of windows line the side and back walls, once again taking advantage of the beautiful backyard.  One of the bedrooms has been made smaller to provide a large, heated storage area off of the two car garage.  You will love having an area to hold all of your recreational gear without having to drag it into the house.  If you don’t need the storage or prefer a larger bedroom, it’s relatively easy to accomodate your needs and change it back into bedroom space. 

This well kept home in a prestigious neighborhood will not disappoint.  Get out and see this fabulous property before it’s too late.

There currently are 92 homes of all types listed; from high end, ski in-ski out homes, to ski condos at the base of the mountain.   Still, it is not as bad as 2001-2002 when I remember there being as many as 160 Copper condos for sale. 

There have been only five sales so far this year, but four more are pending, awaiting closing sometime in the next month or so.  Nine sales in the first six months of the year means that perhaps we will have 20-22 sales this year, assuming about 60% of the sales occur in the last half of the year.  Unless sales pick up, we have enough inventory to last for more than four years, assuming no new listings will come on the market! 

Copper Mountain real estate is an unusual market. 

I am also a Copper homeowner, and I have sold real estate in Summit County for almost 16 years, so I have seen good times and bad.  What is different about Copper is that the homeowners are not real estate speculators.  They are avid skiers, and many own more than one condo.  The reason they sell is to either buy a larger one or because their kids have grown up, their work schedule has got busy, and they just don’t get to use it any more.  As a result, they are mostly not terribly motivated to sell and are unwilling to reduce prices more than they consider necessary.  While we seem to be approaching 2006 prices in the rest of the county, we are not even close at Copper yet. 

While preparing to write this blog post, I looked to see what the average sale to list price ratio was.  I was surprised to see that it was 92%, very close to what it has been lately in the rest of the county.  When I looked at the five sales, I realized that two of them sold for full price, unusual in this market!  What made the difference was a large, four bedroom condo in Elk Run, that was listed at $1,150,000 and sold for $910,000, only 79% of list price!  Apparently that owner didn’t fit the Copper mold, or perhaps he was unwilling to pay the large special assessment that is being levied in the complex. 

The remaining two sales were a Tucker Mountain Lodge one bedroom/den, sold for 92% of list  ($405,000) and a three bedroom Anaconda which sold for  90% of list or $450,000.  They were pretty much “average” sales, but the two full price sales in Copper Valley (2 br for $349,900) and Timber Creek  (3br for $375,000) balanced out the large discount on Elk Run.  As a result, 92% was both the average and the median sale to list price ratio.  It just goes to show that you can tweak numbers any way you want, especially if you are dealing with small quantities.  If I wanted to put a positive spin on it, I could say that 40% of all sales at Copper Mountain sold for full price! 

Click the link for general information on Copper Mountain condo complexes, and both the East and Center Villages.

The Copper Property Owners and Lessees website has HOA documents, minutes and financials for most of the complexes at Copper.

The men will love the three car garage, huge workshop and storage for the toys, while the women can enjoy the open living area with vaulted ceilings and a stone fireplace, great gardens and a nice deck off the back.  It’s the perfect home for everyone!

Located at the back of the house the living area is positioned to give you great light and a nice back deck.

  Vaulted ceilings with skylights and plenty of windows give the living area a large, open feeling flooding the home with natural light during the day.  The river rock fireplace stands dramatically against the far wall of the living room and the kitchen with a small dining table fills the other end.  The formal dining room is just around the corner from the kitchen giving you plenty of space to entertain.  A laundry room off the kitchen also serves as a mud room between the house and the 3 car garage.  Tucked away from the living area in the front of the house is the master bedroom; a convenient main floor location.  It’s very spacious and has a full bathroom with separate tub and shower.  A half bath completes the main floor of the home.  Upstairs are two nice size bedrooms and a full bathroom.  There’s even more room in the finished basement downstairs.  One room serves as a bedroom, the second room is much larger and can be a family room, office, workout room or 5th bedroom.  Currently a murphy bed allows this room to be an office, workout room and bedroom.  The best part of the lower level is the huge workshop.  Set up for a woodworker it could easily be configured for nearly any type of hobby you have.  There’s a separate entrance into the shop from the garage allowing materials to be brought in and out without dragging them through the house.  It’s only half a flight between the workshop and garage.  If you’re not a craftsman, this area could be converted into a kitchen area and a lock off created with a separate entrance though the garage.

There’s still plenty of space on this half acre lot,

even with a 5 bedroom home and attached 3 car garage.  A nice deck comes off the back of the house with a small fenced yard.  There’s still extra room to park the RV or boat, to garden or for the kids to burn off some energy outside.  A great Frisco location across the street from The Reserve, you can enjoy the area without dealing with restrictive HOA covenants and dues.  

Still May, it is early season for hiking, but we are on our third week.  This time last year there was no way we could hike as even the bike paths were still snow covered.  I am part of a group of hikers who get together every Wednesday, starting as early as we can each summer and going until snow stops us.  This year our first hike was May 6th.  We hiked about 6 miles on the bike path from Frisco to Copper Mountain.  It is easy as hikes go; relatively flat with an elevation gain of about 600′.   The Ten Mile Canyon is famous for avalanches in the spring, but we were going late enough that most had already happened.  We did have to climb over one that had crossed the bike path and gone into the river, and we had some snow on the path as we got closer to Copper, but it was a good day for hiking .  We had  quick pit stop at the Starbucks and then took the Summit Stage back to Frisco. 

May 13th we checked out the lower (easier) part of the Ptarmigan Trail.  Making it to the bench at the end of the part of the trail that parallels Hwy 9 below, meant postholing through a few snow drifts and crossing a couple of creeks, but it was a good day and the views were awesome.  The hillside you cross between the trailhead and the trees is normally a mass of wildflowers.  Even though it was only mid May, we were treated to Pasque flowers, Chiming bells and buttercups. 

Today, our plan was to hike to Boulder Lake, which requires a short drive over rough road to the trailhead where there normally is plenty of parking.  The parking lot has an entrance and an exit, and both were blocked by a fallen tree.  A big double trunked spruce (or fir?  I didn’t look closely) had split with one trunk blocking the entrance, and the other one going the opposite direction to also block the exit!   We parked where we could, climbed over the trunk and started down the Rock Creek trail.  At .3 miles, the trail crosses the Gore Trail, which is the way to Boulder Lakes.  After hiking for 45 minutes, we ended up turning around as there was just too much snow.  The trail faces east and has heavy tree cover and it was too shady for the snow to melt off early.  Once we got back to the Rock Creek trail, which is nice and sunny, we continued to the Boss Mine where we stopped for lunch before hiking back.  The trail is still wet and muddy in places, sometimes turning into a creek for short distances, but at least we didn’t have to climb over snow.   The whole area is great moose habitat, and although we didn’t actually see any moose, we saw plenty of sign of them.  To actually see one I just have to hang around in my yard for a while as they come through pretty frequently this time of year. 

Next week we are planning to do the Kettle Ponds hike in the same general area, and it is possible there will still be too much snow.  We will need to have an alternate plan I think!  This time of year we often head to the Heeney area where the elevation is lower and there are some good trails.  The weather this week will make difference, with warm days being our preference! 

For more wildlife photos and info on hiking Buffalo Mountain, click the link to read the blog post I wrote about one of my favorite hikes.