My Summit County real estate July sales forecast was way too high!

Aug 3, 2010 | No Responses

In my last post, I knew that July was not going to be a good month, and estimated that perhaps we would have 60 sales of Summit County residential real estate.   We were going against 79 sales in July 2009, which, compared to our “usual” months of between 100 and 200 units, was low anyway.   This is, for sure, our new normal. 

July 2010 the number of transactions was only 50!  The only month with fewer sales this year was January, always a slow time, and before that, a year ago, in June 2009.   The economic news was not good in May and June, with talk of a double dip, and it affected July closings.   That seems to have eased off now, and the good news is that we already have had 100 properties go under contract since July 1, so sales for August should be much better.  When I called to set up showings of  six properties yesterday, I found that two of them had just gone under contract.  That felt like the old days!   To match last year, we need 85 sales, but in September and October we have 133 and 110 to do.  We are seeing good activity, as Buyers realize that with prices down to 2006 levels in most areas, and interest rates at all time lows, now might be a good time to buy that second home they have always wanted.  Sellers are much more cooperative in adjusting prices, given the number of properties on the market. Buyers  have lots of choices and will not buy today if they don’t get a good value. 

So July was down 37% and year to date we are up by only 24%.  I am now revising my hoped for sales for this year from 1200 to 1100, which would be an increase of only 20% for the year, and still below 2008 levels when we had sales of 1210.